false Climate change and rainfall in the Wheatbelt NRM region

false Climate Change: Rainfall (growing season)

false Climate Change: Rainfall (summer)

Table 1. The regional annual, growing season and summer rainfall totals.

false Climate change and temperature in the Wheatbelt NRM region

false Climate Change: Temperature (Summer max)

false Climate Change: Temperature (Winter min)

false Table 2. The historical and projected average annual, summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures by sub-region.

false Table 3. Regional historical and projected annual, summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures.

false Table 4. The historical and projected average annual, summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures by sub-region.

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The layers presented in the maps are derived from two main sources, the CSIRO Climate Change in Australia Map Explorer and the Bureau of Meteorology average temperature variables dataset. Projected rainfall data are based on the model choices, climate change scenarios and timeframes described here while the historical values represent the average over the standard 30 year period from 1961-1990.

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• The whole region is projected to get warmer; by up to 2^oC to the year 2070.
• The rate of change is fastest in the 15 years up to 2030.
• There is small but significant difference between the projected temperature change under medium and high emissions scenarios under both timeframes.
• The historic average annual temperature of approx. 17^oC is projected to increase by 1^oC to 2030 and 2^oC by 2070 under medium and high emission scenarios.
• The mean maximum summer temperatures are projected to increase by up to 3^oC and mean minimum winter temperatures increase up to 1.7^oC.
• The range of annual and summer temperatures is projected to stay relatively stable however the winter temperatures are projected to get less variable at a regional scale. 

• There is a projected increase in both summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures for all sub-regions; and the range between these extremes will get larger over the next 15 years but be most pronounced in the central sub-region and least pronounced in the Great Western Woodlands. In the longer term, the range between extremes is projected to decrease.
• Historically the Eastern sub-region has the highest mean annual maximum temperatures and is consistently projected to have the highest increases in mean annual temperature of up to 2.6^oC under high emissions to 2070. Mean maximum summer temperatures are projected to reach 35-36^oC by 2070; which is approx. 2.3-3.3 degrees hotter than current means.
• The Southern sub-region has the “coolest” annual and summer temperatures with the lowest projected increases in temperatures, except in winter when the minimum temperatures are projected to increase by up to 1.82^oC under high emissions to 2070. It will remain a relatively cool region but the winters will get significantly warmer.
• The Central region consistently shows the highest projected increase in summer maximums of up 3.27^oC under moderate emissions to 2070 and also has the warmest projected minimum winter temperatures.
• While it is historically one of the coolest sub-regions in winter, the Great Western Woodlands show the greatest increases in winter minimum temperature increasing from the current by 2.24^oC under high emission to 2070.
• The Avon Arc consistently represents intermediate historical and projected temperatures between the “cool” Southern sub-region and the mean warmer sub-regions to its east; however it shows the lowest projected increases in winter minimums under most scenarios.